Monday, December 05, 2005

Euro Adoption

There is much national debate about whether or not to adopt the Euro, but the question is, which decision is the best decision for Britain?
Its easy enough to say we're Pro/Anti Euro, but there are many circumstances where that verdict does need some deliberation.
If we adopt the European currency, Britain would see many dramatic changes, especially in professional business'. For this matter, adoption of the euro could have some beneficial factors; the first one being greater consumer surplus. By expanding into Europe, there would be increased competition from European firms. With this, British firms would feel the need to lower their prices and reduce their costs to keep up with this increased competition, and so we could all in the near future see a dramatic fall in UK prices of goods/services. Its also worth considering the low, stable rate of interest that the European Community maintains (currently at around 2%). Mortgage holders could vastly see a decrease in their debts, which in turn means higher disposable income for consumers, and less worry for taking out loans, overdrafts, e.t.c.
With these factors, both British consumers and Business' would thrive in European intergration, along with other benefits such as holiday making (where there would no longer be the need to change currencies from British sterling to the Euro), and a simple European monetary and fiscal policy scheme set by Brussels.
However, in my opinion, these benefits are out-weighed by the problems that would occur if we joined in the European currency union. Fair enough we would have a stable interest rate, but economically, this may not be beneficial in times of UK Inflationary pressure. Our interest rates are currently set by the Bank of England, and in times of economic inflation and high spending, the Bank of England will increase interest rates (to encourage saving rather than spending). This prevents any further advance of inflation within the economy, but in this case, the European interest rate of 2% would not be enough to lower inflation, and hence if apart of Europe, Britain may endure huge inflationary problems, damaging to all business' and British exports.
Its also cause for concern to whether the European Monetary Committee could actually do a better job of running our economy than the Bank of England. Is it possible that a Monetary Committee hundreds of miles away in Brussels could understand our economy the same way than our London bank? I very much doubt it.
And finally, are we really willing to give up our own national currency? Britain has always created and distributed its own currency (such as today's Sterling), so is it the case that majority of Britain wants to give up its currency identity?
A survey conducted in August 2001 of 1,002 Chief Business Executives revealed that:
  • Over 65% of business' wanted to keep the Pound, only 20% supported the Euro adoption.
  • 80% of business' felt that the Bank of England would set interest rates that were more appropriate for UK business'.
  • Of all the things that the Government could do to help UK consumers and business', adopting the Euro was ranked the lowest. A huge majority of the public felt more investment in capital projects (such as Education, the NHS, and transport) would be more appropriate.

In general, many people think adoption of the Euro would be beneficial, and in some cases it is, but looking at the long run, it appears that Euro intergration would go against the benefits of consumers, business', and the economy within the UK.

Would adopting the Euro benefit both UK consumers and business'?

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Cameron/Davis Hustings: Celtic Manor (Newport)

For the whole of this Conservative leadership campaign, I have changed my mind numerous times on who i feel would be best suited to lead the Conservatives into the next general election in 2009. First, i felt confident in Kenneth Clarke, believing that his sense of character would attract more votes to our campaign (but unfortunately, a few Tory MP's destroyed that plan). I then stood along side Liam Fox, but it was obvious that his support was not going to get him the top seat...and then it came down the final two; Davis or Cameron.
Before, I rooted for Davis, but was still not entirely sure of his ability to lead a new "changed" party, but after attending the Celtic Manor hustings debate last Tuesday (29/11/05), I have finally come to a conclusion on who's name will recieve my cross on the ballot paper...and the answer: neither!
My honest opinion is "How can i choose when both have such great aspects to be the next leader"?
Starting with Cameron first though, all I can say is...what a fantastic politician. The moment he took the stage, the party members which i was sat amongst were hanging on by his every word, applauding the common sense he used in his speech, and above all, appealing to every member within reach of his voice...talking about how reform is needed for the NHS, pensions, education, crime, immigration, e.t.c.
Davis on the other hand also put on a spectacular performance, talking about how Britain must not suffer another 4 years under the hands of New Labour, and by no means did he recieved any less applause from those seated.
But why have i chosen to abstain? Simple....i can not justify each candidates positive characteristics any more than i can their negatives.
Take Cameron for instance, i know for a fact that he is the only one to reach a wider audience than the Conservatives have done in the past 3 general elections...period. He's young, speaks well and most of all can take support away from the Liberal Democrats and above all Labour, but he is in favour of a few policies which are absurd to me (such as 24 hour drinking, Top-up fee's, e.t.c).
Davis on the other hand has policies based on common sense, and is a traditional Conservative through and through. He speaks well, and comes across as he knows what he's talking about....but would he really get that extra electorate support that Cameron would? After all, we have fought and lost the past 3 elections using the same strategy's over and over again.....would it really be any different this time?
So the only option left for me to do is to abstain in this contest. Call me "sitting on the fence", but in the end, i cant vote for both candidates, so my decision is to leave it up to the rest of the Conservative party membership, and hope they choose Britain's next Prime Minister.

2 weeks remaining: Cameron or Davis?
Copyright © James.R.Skinner, 2006